Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73371.028670 77543.516237 81720.901701 86213.976607 90906.895510 95660.861458 100837.668935
2025-12-28 67056.817556 73447.246536 80028.082941 87302.134587 95107.646882 103222.483254 112287.238110
2026-01-04 62506.977961 70430.208333 78772.795233 88192.535211 98513.163414 109457.275158 121920.221434
2026-01-11 58831.582243 67891.300393 77610.057917 88779.706003 101229.586723 114647.072532 130167.372994
2026-01-18 55547.328323 65471.054789 76293.082116 88924.901005 103216.116142 118834.612351 137144.475130
2026-01-25 52807.723102 63444.519021 75217.323840 89150.925932 105125.546736 122800.715301 143767.162087
2026-02-01 50238.560377 61442.309705 74014.185516 89085.048737 106574.933917 126145.670720 149609.917913
2026-02-08 48420.096601 60192.935359 73570.301507 89794.227635 108830.347501 130347.939977 156394.192541
2026-02-15 46374.208993 58565.553960 72586.915668 89782.198017 110170.485014 133438.791782 161859.720522
2026-02-22 45210.285295 57920.631622 72700.117067 91008.235249 112921.355600 138145.683548 169204.859867
2026-03-01 43928.681181 57066.530897 72505.896338 91817.279999 115140.627526 142209.265922 175795.500456
2026-03-08 42285.975927 55699.711490 71630.422468 91748.168518 116262.547015 144943.594658 180798.271717
2026-03-15 40883.703521 54591.959960 71041.691174 92010.056833 117782.949600 148172.635233 186439.273296
2026-03-22 40139.409460 54274.243219 71397.478521 93411.578261 120683.604172 153069.252304 194116.805426
2026-03-29 39252.648684 53736.983603 71448.462610 94410.654903 123077.157478 157354.447520 201076.821685
2026-04-05 38251.180168 53012.541305 71230.297571 95044.669121 125000.447427 161061.749808 207345.788814
2026-04-12 37089.663060 52038.730064 70659.305045 95201.189588 126304.320236 163997.430418 212672.608455
2026-04-19 36031.361873 51161.800956 70177.843724 95440.847204 127689.760605 167022.465083 218113.137561
2026-04-26 34894.541143 50143.037772 69479.350063 95371.350699 128660.160862 169518.591247 222897.783694
2026-05-03 34168.139190 49644.480528 69432.038000 96121.166891 130660.165684 173298.543166 229296.412720
2026-05-10 33159.073330 48733.464020 68816.868249 96108.457050 131665.610774 175821.528996 234124.719339
2026-05-17 32734.810242 48599.116018 69210.632788 97404.550621 134354.441886 180477.764891 241664.395326
2026-05-24 32154.606610 48231.131905 69278.147388 98259.727135 136468.302116 184411.497854 248311.819501